Oscars 2020 : Predictions.. Favorites.. Misses…

And the Oscar goes to…

As we draw very close to February 8th, the night of Academy Awards 2020, it is time to predict the most likely winners of the year based on current momentum and buzz from other awards, and also present the Third Vantage Point Perspective on who are the most deserving winners based on nominations, along with the major misses and snubs in all major categories.

Thanks to the initiative primarily by PVR Cinemas as well as Inox Movies, there were special screenings held for almost all the majorly nominated films at the Oscars and gave me the opportunity to experience them at the theaters. A few others were watched online given that there was no other chance for their release before the awards were declared.

We cover the major categories and look at the personal favorites within the nominated list (ranked in order of most favorite to least favorite based on TVP perspective, and yes even the relatively least favorite may be pretty good), followed by predicting where it is most likely to go or could go by category. We will also talk about some of the major misses in the category that should definitely have been part of the conversation and were totally overlooked.

BEST PICTURE

TVP Favorite (ranked from most to least) / Rooting For Win:

  1. Marriage Story
  2. Jojo Rabbit
  3. 1917
  4. Little Women
  5. The Irishman
  6. Ford v Ferrari
  7. Joker
  8. Parasite
  9. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Most Likely to Win:    1917

Could Also Win: Parasite, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Jojo Rabbit

(* This is the closest fought category in the entire awards which can pull up a major upset )

Major Misses: The Farewell, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Pain and Glory

 

DIRECTOR

TVP Favorite (ranked from most to least) /  Rooting For Win:

  1. Sam Mendes – 1917
  2. Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
  3. Bong Joon Ho – Parasite
  4. Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  5. Todd Philips – Joker

Most Likely to Win:    Sam Mendes – 1917

Could Also Win: Bong Joon Ho – Parasite, Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Major Misses: Greta Gerwig – Little Women, Celine Sciamma – Portrait of a Lady of Fire, Lulu Wang – The Farewell, Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit

 

LEAD ACTOR

TVP Favorite (ranked from most to least) / Rooting For Win:

  1. Adam Driver – Marriage Story
  2. Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
  3. Antonio Bandares – Pain and Glory
  4. Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes
  5. Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Most Likely to Win:    Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

Could Also Win: Adam Driver – Marriage Story

Major Misses: Robert De Niro – The Irishman, Brad Pitt – Ad Astra, Paul Walter Hauser – Richard Jewell, Roman Griffin Davis – Jojo Rabbit, Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari

 

LEAD ACTRESS

TVP Favorite (ranked from most to least) / Rooting For Win:

  1. Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
  2. Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
  3. Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
  4. Charlize Theron – Bombshell
  5. Renee Zellweger – Judy

Most Likely to Win:    Renee Zellweger – Judy

Could Also Win: Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story

Major Misses: Jessie Buckley – Wild Rose, Lupita Nyongo – Us, Adèle Haenel and Noémie Merlant – Portrait of a Lady on Fire

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR

TVP Favorite (ranked from most to least) / Rooting For Win:

  1. Joe Pesci – The Irishman
  2. Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
  3. Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  4. Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
  5. Al Pacino – The Irishman

Most Likely to Win:    Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Could Also Win: No one else has any buzz

Major Misses: Sam Rockwell – Richard Jewell, Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy, Shia LaBeouf – Honey Boy

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

TVP Favorite (ranked from most to least) / Rooting For Win:

  1. Florence Pugh – Little Women
  2. Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
  3. Laura Dern – Marriage Story
  4. Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell
  5. Margot Robbie – Bombshell

Most Likely to Win:    Laura Dern – Marriage Story

Could Also Win: No one else has any buzz

Major Misses: Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell, Annette Bening – The Report, Taylor Russell – Waves, Octavia Spencer – Luce

 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

TVP Favorite (ranked from most to least) / Rooting For Win:

  1. Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story
  2. Bong Joon-ho, Jin Won Han – Parasite
  3. Rian Johnson – Knives Out
  4. Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns – 1917
  5. Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Most Likely to Win:    Bong Joon-ho, Jin Won Han – Parasite

Could Also Win: Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Major Misses: Tyler Nilson, Michael Schwartz – The Peanut Butter Falcon; Paul Laverty – Sorry We Missed You; Emily Halpern, Sara Haskins, Susanna Fogel, Katie Silberman – Booksmart

 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

TVP Favorite (ranked from most to least) / Rooting For Win:

  1. Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit
  2. Greta Gerwig – Little Women
  3. Anthony McCarten – The Two Popes
  4. Steven Zaillian – The Irishman
  5. Todd Phillips, Scott Silver – Joker

Most Likely to Win:    Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit

Could Also Win: Greta Gerwig – Little Women

Major Misses: Mario Correa, Matthew Michael Carnahan – Dark Waters; Lulu Wang – The Farewell; Destin Daniel Cretton – Just Mercy; Micah Fitzerman-Blue, Noah Harpster – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

 

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

TVP Favorite (ranked from most to least) / Rooting For Win:

  1. Pain and Glory – Pedro Almodovar
  2. Parasite – Bong Joon-Ho
  3. Honeyland – Tamara Kotevska, Ljubo Stefanov

Les Miserables, Corpus Christi – Not watched, Not ranked

Most Likely to Win:    Parasite – Bong Joon-Ho

Could Also Win: Pain and Glory – Pedro Almodovar

Major Misses: Portrait of a Lady on Fire (not even submitted for the category)

 

ANIMATED FEATURE

TVP Favorite (ranked from most to least) / Rooting For Win:

  1. Toy Story 4
  2. Klaus
  3. I Lost My Body

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Missing Link – Not watched, Not ranked

Most Likely to Win:    Toy Story 4

Could Also Win: Klaus

Major Misses: Frozen 2

 

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

TVP Favorite (ranked from most to least) / Rooting For Win:

  1. Honeyland
  2. American Factory
  3. The Edge of Democracy

For Sama, The Cave – Not watched, Not ranked

Most Likely to Win:    American Factory

Could Also Win: Honeyland

Major Misses: One Child Nation, Apollo 11

 

CINEMATOGRAPHY

TVP Favorite (ranked from most to least) / Rooting For Win:

  1. Roger Deakins – 1917
  2. Lawrence Sher – Joker
  3. Jarin Blaschke – The Lighthouse
  4. Robert Richardson – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  5. Rodrigo Prieto – The Irishman

Most Likely to Win:    Roger Deakins – 1917

Could Also Win: No one else has any buzz

Major Misses: Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Little Women, Ad Astra

 

EDITING

TVP Favorite (ranked from most to least) / Rooting For Win:

  1. Michael McCusker, Andrew Buckland – Ford v Ferrari
  2. Jinmo Yang – Parasite
  3. Jeff Groth – Joker
  4. Tom Eagles – Jojo Rabbit
  5. Thelma Schoonmaker – The Irishman

Most Likely to Win:    Jinmo Yang – Parasite

Could Also Win: Michael McCusker, Andrew Buckland – Ford v Ferrari

Major Misses: Marriage Story, Pain and Glory

 

PRODUCTION DESIGN

TVP Favorite (ranked from most to least) / Rooting For Win:

  1. Dennis Gassner and Lee Sandales – 1917
  2. Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  3. Lee Ha-Jun and Cho Won Woo, Han Ga Ram, and Cho Hee – Parasite
  4. Bob Shaw and Regina Graves – The Irishman
  5. Ra Vincent and Nora Sopkova – Jojo Rabbit

Most Likely to Win:    Dennis Gassner and Lee Sandales – 1917

Could Also Win: Lee Ha-Jun and Cho Won Woo, Han Ga Ram, and Cho Hee – Parasite; Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Major Misses: Little Women, Ad Astra, Pain and Glory

 

COSTUME DESIGN

TVP Favorite (ranked from most to least) / Rooting For Win:

  1. Jacqueline Durran – Little Women
  2. Mayes C. Rubeo – Jojo Rabbit
  3. Arianne Phillips – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  4. Mark Bridges – Joker
  5. Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson – The Irishman

Most Likely to Win:    Jacqueline Durran – Little Women

Could Also Win: Arianne Phillips – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Major Misses: Portrait of a Lady on Fire

 

MAKEUP AND HAIR

TVP Favorite (ranked from most to least) / Rooting For Win:

  1. Bombshell
  2. Joker
  3. 1917
  4. Judy

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil – Not watched, Not ranked

Most Likely to Win:   Bombshell

Could Also Win: Joker

Major Misses: Little Women, Jojo Rabbit

 

ORIGINAL SCORE

TVP Favorite (ranked from most to least) / Rooting For Win:

  1. Hildur Guðnadóttir – Joker
  2. Alexandre Desplat – Little Women
  3. Thomas Newman – 1917
  4. Randy Newman – Marriage Story

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – Not watched, Not ranked

Most Likely to Win:   Hildur Guðnadóttir – Joker

Could Also Win: Thomas Newman – 1917

Major Misses: Jojo Rabbit

 

ORIGINAL SONG

TVP Favorite (ranked from most to least) / Rooting For Win:

  1. Stand Up – Harriet
  2. I’m Gonna Love Me Again – Rocketman
  3. Into the Unknown – Frozen 2
  4. I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away – Toy Story 4

I’m Standing With You, Breakthrough – Not watched, Not ranked

Most Likely to Win:   Stand Up – Harriet

Could Also Win: I’m Gonna Love Me Again – Rocketman

Major Misses: Invisible – Klaus; No place like home – Wild Rose

 

SOUND EDITING

TVP Favorite (ranked from most to least) / Rooting For Win:

  1. Don Sylvester – Ford v Ferrari
  2. Oliver Tarney, Rachel Tate – 1917
  3. Alan Robert Murray – Joker
  4. Wylie Stateman – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Star Wars: The Rise of SkyWalker – Not watched, Not ranked

Most Likely to Win:   Oliver Tarney, Rachel Tate – 1917

Could Also Win: Don Sylvester – Ford v Ferrari

Major Misses: Ad Astra

 

SOUND MIXING

TVP Favorite (ranked from most to least) / Rooting For Win:

  1. Ford v Ferrari
  2. Ad Astra
  3. 1917
  4. Joker
  5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Most Likely to Win:   1917

Could Also Win: Ford v Ferrari

Major Misses: The Irishman

 

The other categories are not covered since the critical mass on those nominations were not watched. 

What are your likely Oscar winner predictions? Who are you rooting for? Share your thoughts and comments. Hoping to see many deserving winners taking home the trophy on the Oscars Night, beating the buzz where needed! Lets wait and watch… All the Best to all nominees!

 

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Copyright ©2020 Jayashree Chakravarti.This article cannot be reproduced in its entirety without permission. A link to this URL can be used instead.

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